Opinions on pricing please...

[V8 Goat]

I stand corrected! A quick search shows there are plenty around that price point with that mileage. The market seems to have shifted a lot in the past year...

And there are some cheaper than that in my market. 2018 802A (all options except CF, 1-owner, clean CarFax) with 33k miles for $59k. It's interesting to see how things have adjusted. Yes, ADM is starting to come down in certain markets, but a $10k reduction in ADM and a $10k reduction in trade value still leaves us in the same place unfortunately...

 

[rfc805]

Please feel free to elaborate.. LOL

Not sure elaboration is necessary. There is not a clear indication that supply chain issues will improve through 2023. In some cases, it looks to possibly be worse.

It is unknown at this point how it will shake out, and it is unclear how supply issues versus economic downturn will impact pricing.

Generally your prediction of prices dropping is the accepted view, but it's very low certainty at this point.

 

[V8 Goat]

Not sure elaboration is necessary. There is not a clear indication that supply chain issues will improve through 2023. In some cases, it looks to possibly be worse.

It is unknown at this point how it will shake out, and it is unclear how supply issues versus economic downturn will impact pricing.

Generally your prediction of prices dropping is the accepted view, but it's very low certainty at this point.

I agree. The general idea of prices dropping is the likely scenario (we are beginning to see it in certain markets), but to what degree they drop is still up for debate. Despite the improving supply chain, Raptor demand is still outpacing supply. It's just an interesting game of cat and mouse. Supply at $25k ADM is actually outpacing demand, but demand would likely outpace supply at $10k ADM. And there's no doubt that demand at MSRP would far exceed supply. I guess we'll just sit back and see how it plays out.

 

[xlover]

it is going to be hard for raptor prices to fall too fast, given that most of the forward looking inventory are retail orders which have already agreed to pricing (maybe not always honored by the dealer). Lot supply would have to outpace both impulse/lot only demand and "willing to abandon order" immediate demand to the point where orders at +10k/5k/even MSRP are being abandoned in favor of the lot vehicle.

I think the next tranche to fall is going to be double digit ADM orders converting to high/mid single digit ADMs on vehicles for immediate purchase but i cant imagine it dropping too far below that in the general market. those former double digit ADM orders will then be replaced by ADMs the single digit range and then the cycle repeats. But as noted retail order supply is greater than dealer stock supply and adms on retail are generally lower than dealer stock so it should move slowly, raptors wont back up on lots they are going to in most cases go directly to a consumer.

of course there are some dealers far below lot prices on retail orders, already at MSRP. (mine included) so for me an many others it would have to take a perfect spec vehicle at MSRP (maybe jussssttt above) for me to abandon my order, we are effectively out of the pool until there is a significant price drop. at which point the pricing fall will be "caught" as MSRP And near MSRP tranches enter the immediate purchase market.

 

[GCATX]

Please feel free to elaborate.. LOL

Supply chain issue or not, I have read here somewhere that Ford plans to build about 6-8k Raptors in 2023, split between the R and the poverty Raptor (someone correct me if I'm wrong). When we picked up ours a few weeks ago, the owner of the dealership told me that they had a meeting with the CEO Farley and Farley said about half Ford dealerships would NOT be getting a single Raptor in '23. That is the new reality.

So unless demand goes away altogether, there WILL NOT be enough supply of new Raptors.

 

[melvimbe]

I think we are also coming to a point where people are no longer waiting for things to return back to normal and are ready to accept the new normal. By that I mean that a lot of people will just accept that vehicles are more expensive now and will just buy now at crappy prices. And a lot of people will accept that they'll be keeping their vehicles longer and shipping for used vehicles from now on.

Then there's the group of people that believe that we are heading towards an EV utopia.

 

[FmaxTurboSi]

Supply chains are catching up which in turn increases the supply of available raptors. With rising interest rates there are less buyers in the market which means less demand and more supply. I’m in CA and used raptor prices and new ADMs have steadily gone down the last 6 months.

I've seen around 10k recently in my area.

It was 20-30k a few months ago, and around 15k about 1 month ago.

 

[hsun85]

I just hope California pricing could come down to the level of mid America.

 

[houtex1]

Well the deal is not going to happen for me. A unexpected family emergency and a few other factors made me decided that though I want this new truck , I don't need it. My 2018 is clean, damage free and once the cam phasers were fixed, it seems to sound better. I'll look around for another after the holidays.

Here's the truck https://www.bigstarford.com/invento...raptor-4wd-crew-cab-pickup-1ftfw1rg3nfc05900/

 

[Teghogh]

How is this exactly 80knout he door with 20k adm?