$109,145 Starting Price

[melvimbe]

Ford is in the business of making money and they don’t care about resale. They will build a lot of these as they are the most profitable F150.

They are limited in their ability to produce the engine for these, in addition to every other supply constraint. I think we make a lot of these, but I don't think there is much chance they will saturate the market.

With a coming recession that will hit “pickup truck buyers” if someone has patience, in 12-18 months these will most likely follow the same discount path of the TRX. It’s basic economics- as others have pointed out there is a limited buyer at $109k.

That's very unlikely. Even if Ford could make as many of these as they wanted, it would be foolish of them to make it easily available at a discount. Honestly, Ford and many other brands are not likely to fill up auto lots with discounted vehicles any time soon. It's not a good business model. Dealers don't want to pay interest on vehicles sitting on lots, and Ford doesn't want to give out rebates to clear out last years inventory. And theoretically, vehicles that never sell new below MSRP should hold their resale better....so it's good for customers? As long as Ford can convince people to commit to buying vehicles sight unseen, and waiting a couple months for delivery, they will keep doing it. You might see ADM reduce or go away, but don't expect discounts like that.

ADM today discounts in 2023…. I feel like people are forgetting (maybe ignoring) that Raptors were below sticker just a few years ago but started out w ADM.

This is pre COVID days, yes. Hard to say history will repeat itself when Ford said that it's not going back to that business model.

Higher car loans, higher unemployment, lower stock market and a somewhat normal chip production in 2023 will hit demand on all cars. People are still (for whatever reason) living like it’s 2021. As used car prices fall you are going to have a lot of people w negative equity on cars.

Used values may go down, but Ford likely will keep new car supply low to maintain car values. If people don't want to pay them, that will increase demand in the used car market...which will help keep used car values relatively high.

I think the flaw in this new market where manufacturers keep supply low is that those who don't have to buy a new vehicle, or even a used vehicle, just won't do it. People will keep their vehicles longer and wait it out. No more impulse buying, and fewer people just turning over a vehicle every year or two.

That being said mentally when I factor in delivery, sunroof, sales tax and a clear bra I just don’t see the value looking at the spec sheet when when I take the emotion out of “but it’s a V8!!”.

I don't think Ford is looking to attract the value buyer with the Raptor R.

 

[Raptorial]

Where'd you come up with these numbers? 3% of the US population is about 10 million.

I think keyword was "working" population

 

[melvimbe]

I think keyword was "working" population

Not sure it matters if the numbers are all made up. Maybe they are not. Would love to see source.

 

[Raptorial]

And when you need service on your $150k truck, you still go to a Ford dealership and get put into a loaner Ford Edge.

Its bad enough spending $80k and ending up in an Edge lol.

For $150k I want white glove service. Like you get at Mercedes, Porsche, BMW...

This is the same reason I never got a GTR. Didn't want a Sentra as my loaner

 

[GordoJay]

Not sure it matters if the numbers are all made up. Maybe they are not. Would love to see source.

87% of the numbers you see on the internet are made up on the spot ...

 

[Big Papa Gecko]

87% of the numbers you see on the internet are made up on the spot ...

Just like 69% of all statistics are made up on the spot

 

[GordoJay]

This is pre COVID days, yes. Hard to say history will repeat itself when Ford said that it's not going back to that business model.

It will be interesting to see how long they can hold the line. When a competitor breaks rank, the rest tend to follow. It might be two years, or five, but eventually I think that smart buyers will have another shot at good deals. The one good thing about the model is being able to order exactly what you want - assuming that it's offered. The forced bundling of options should go away since it makes the person ordering feel like they're being taken advantage of. It's different when you're salivating over a vehicle that has a couple of options that you don't really want. Hopefully Ford will wake up to this difference.

 

[Darkalley]

In history the amount of ADM cars that crashed are extensive.

I’ve never bought a car and thought about depreciation as it is what it is. If someone has $110k+ to spend on a pickup….gas, interest rates, depreciation aren’t part of the conversation.

I don’t judge people who spend on an ADM it just means you have FU money and this is where you want to burn it. It’s like going to a Waldorf when I could have stayed at the Hilton down the street.

But zero chance with the economy slowing and interest rates going up the ADM market is here to stay.

I’m probably gonna swap my Raptor for an X5M next which will depreciate like it’s falling off a cliff but I’m personally over the ADM on the R and Bronco Raptors…..

 

[BoostCreep]

Ford is not going to make that many of these because their production capacity for the motor is low and they need to keep an eye on CAFE numbers. Anyone who thinks Ford is gonna make as many as people want and saturate the market to “make money” has no idea of the realities of the current automotive industry from a regulatory standpoint.

 

[melvimbe]

It will be interesting to see how long they can hold the line. When a competitor breaks rank, the rest tend to follow.

I think Ford is somewhat leaning on brand loyalty, or at least that buyers don't see others as real competitors. If you want an F150, or you going to get a Ram/Silverado? If you want a Bronco, you ok with Jeep? Who else makes a Lightning competitor? Maybe that's just my bias speaking, but people are waiting years to get their hands on these vehicles. But that isn't likely to last forever.

It might be two years, or five, but eventually I think that smart buyers will have another shot at good deals.

It may be that said 'good deal' is limited to used vehicles only. I'm wondering if dealers, any brand, are content to just sell used on the lot and special order pretty much all the new vehicles.

The one good thing about the model is being able to order exactly what you want - assuming that it's offered. The forced bundling of options should go away since it makes the person ordering feel like they're being taken advantage of. It's different when you're salivating over a vehicle that has a couple of options that you don't really want. Hopefully Ford will wake up to this difference.

Bundling is great if it means cheaper price for more of the stuff you already want...a bakers dozen. However, best of both worlds would be cheaper upgrades the more upgrades you add, rather than bundles of stuff you don't want. Or give me the bundle prices as well as a la carte pricing.

For me personally, I have never special ordered a vehicle before, but I would do it. But certainly not without being able to drive a similar model in person before I decide.