Yes used and new markets tend to follow the same trend lines. Are there still some deals to be had, sure but if I was a betting man I would say when the used prices drop the new will follow suit, as they always have.
For instance a few years back when there weren’t any rebates on the new body 2015 f150 used market was very strong. We got some big rebates totaling almost 9-10 grand... and wouldn’t you know it the used market followed suit and they dropped hard in the coming months.
They both have a cause and effect on each other
This seems to be different as it has nothing to do with rebates but more so inventory. Dealerships have been over paying for used cars just to have inventory on their lots due to the fact that no new inventory was being shipped. So right now it makes no sense to buy used vs new because the used market is so over priced .
Come the first if the year the dealerships will be saturated with new car inventory and I am sure there will be tons of rebates like you said and I am willing to bet you won't get hall of what you will get now on the trade in market.
I don't believe the hit will they will be so willing to discount the used cars are they are already 5k in the hole when the over paid for it.
I know if 3 dealerships that I work with that sold new 2019 trucks and the owners traded them back to the dealerships with 20k mi on them and the dealerships gave them MSRP for trade value.
I could be wrong but from what I have been seeing the curve is going to be buy new for the next year and a half or so