Trade a Raptor for a Lightning?

jamanrr

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Some of your points are correct some are vastly off base. In nuclear deregulated power markets EVs are a cheap mode of transportation with as little as 8 dollar charging and top offs. America needs to produce their own chips but they don't, China and rest of the global markets are switching to EV production. If you have ever been in a Tesla it's technology is on another kevel.

I didn't say i agree with the timelines but their are several startups such as lucid and Canoo which are shaking the whole big three model to its core. You are going to see the big three companies reduce dealers, spin off EVs from ICE dealers and go direct to consumers. This is bound to effect the market no more 20 to 30 k markups for Gen 3 raptors. If you are connected to the dealers, not qualified to repair the new EVs and/ or going to ignore the market then you will be left behind.

I didn't say I agree with it but California is the first to ban all ICE vehicle sales by 2030. It is here to stay and is the future.
 

melvimbe

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California bans stuff all the time, and then pushes back the date because it was unrealistic to achieve...known all the time.

I would be ok if with this move to EVs if it occurred naturally, rather than ram down our throats by the government. Things rarely go well when the government gets heavily involved in markets like this. The flaws with EVs are many. The financial and environmental costs of making them. The poor performance compared to ICE in many situations. The cost to replace batteries. The impact on an already poor performing electrical grid. And the reality that the EV you buy today will likely be significantly performance worse than EVs 5 years from now.

20+ years ago, I used to work in a government conservation department. We pushed rebates for better lightbulbs and AC units, encourage people to let their lawns grow wild, etc. Government has been doing this crap for decades with little to show for it. Let the market push things forward at the correct pace. EVs are selling just fine right now, and will continue to do so without government push, for those that want an EV.
 

smurfslayer

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In nuclear deregulated power markets EVs are a cheap mode of transportation with as little as 8 dollar charging and top offs.

So where are these deregulated nuclear power markets? IIRC, the Lightning needs an 80 amp circuit to ‘fast’ charge. This is DOUBLE the current going to your common electric dryer, which is likely the biggest energy hog in the common household. Some AC units would compete depending on where you are but for the analogy, let’s stick with the dryer.

You need ~5-6 hours for a full charge, and let’s say 2 hours for a ’top off’. 2 hours on your 80 amp charge circuit will be roughly equivalent to drying a full tub of wet clothes 4 times x 1 hour. That is, 4 consecutive full loads of wet clothes being dried. Now, I’d need to do some more math but 8 dollars seems like a stretch for that kind of draw.

I didn't say i agree with the timelines but their are several startups such as lucid and Canoo which are shaking the whole big three model to its core
But the point here is that none of EV makers have conquered the lack of range problem. Outright performance is competitive or better than ICE, but for all it’s purported benefits, you pay a large weight penalty to accommodate the batteries, which are just not that efficient and that’s why we have the Raptor that can handle Austin to El Paso on one tank of gas and the Lightning which can only make it half that distance and requires a full charge to complete the journey. But let’s make it competitive and say the Raptor also stops to refuel. The Raptor can refuel and be on the road in 10 minutes. How long for an EV recharge to make it 300 miles?

You are going to see the big three companies reduce dealers, spin off EVs from ICE dealers and go direct to consumers. This is bound to effect the market no more 20 to 30 k markups for Gen 3 raptors

You have a good dream there. I would be open to new sales models but it’s not going to happen tomorrow, next week, or next month. We probably won’t see it next year either.

Jen Tres is probably doomed to be the most overpriced Raptor yet and not speaking to any lack of capability, just the market. I tend to think we’ll see the gas and diesel truck lines continue long into the future, but cities and counties with gold plated budgets will be able to tax their way into more favorable EV adoption rates by propping up charge stations and taxpayer funded subsidies. That may provide enough time and maturation to expand EV usage viability over the years.
 

rfc805

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So where are these deregulated nuclear power markets? IIRC, the Lightning needs an 80 amp circuit to ‘fast’ charge. This is DOUBLE the current going to your common electric dryer, which is likely the biggest energy hog in the common household. Some AC units would compete depending on where you are but for the analogy, let’s stick with the dryer.

You need ~5-6 hours for a full charge, and let’s say 2 hours for a ’top off’. 2 hours on your 80 amp charge circuit will be roughly equivalent to drying a full tub of wet clothes 4 times x 1 hour. That is, 4 consecutive full loads of wet clothes being dried. Now, I’d need to do some more math but 8 dollars seems like a stretch for that kind of draw.

I think your understanding of electricity is a bit incomplete. Generally, we measure and pay in kWh, which is a KW for an hour, as the name would imply. An electric clothes dryer tends to use about 5-5.6kW while running. So, your 1 hour example, 5.6kWh. Here, where admittedly in the Midwest we have reasonably cheap electricity, we're about $0.10/kWh delivered. Makes the math pretty easy, $0.56 per 1 hour, or $2.24 for the 4 hours you mention.

Once you know your delivered kWh cost, knowing that the Lightning ER is a 170kWh battery also makes this math very easy. Note that modern EVs reserve a good 10-15% of that battery, so you'll not really find yourself discharging/charging the full amount, so call it 150kWh if you fully drain it. It does not really matter how fast you charge it, 80A, 20A, 40A - it just changes the rate. The amount remains the same, and costs the same.

150kWh * $0.10/kWh, $15. If you take the 'delivered' part out (the cost you pay to have service hooked up, billing, all that) it's about $10. There are cheaper places than here, so $8 is definitely not out of the realm of reason. On the flip side, if you go to some of the more expensive places I've heard of (Mass, SoCal) I think it gets up to $0.30/kWh - and that's $45, still not bad. Gas/Diesel tend to be higher there as well, which is no surprise.

Now, from what I've seen commercial EV fast charging stations tend to charge more like $0.40-$0.70/kWh. As a result, they end up a lot more similar to filling up a combustion vehicle in price. Anywhere from $60-120 is probably realistic.

Your clothes dryer is also definitely not the biggest energy hog in a household. The reasoning is largely efficiency. Your refrigerators/freezers and AC being the more inefficient systems will use the most. The resistive heating elements and motor of the electric dryer will be nearly 100% efficient, which is an important thing to understand in larger terms - because EV drivetrains follow that rule as well.

ICE engines, by comparison, are only even theoretically in the high 30%s of efficiency if I recall correctly. Practically, we're more in the 20% realm.
 

jamanrr

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Duke Energy
Dominion
AEP

are just some examples of regulated utilities,

Also your math is a little fuzzy on the output requirements for level 2 charging, usually a 60 amp circuit is good enough to charge a Level 2 output over night. Anywhere from 40-50-60 will work but I would use a 60 amp breaker.

The range if you will is not there yet, but they have been improving them from that stand point. Extended batteries work pretty well.

It is a slow adoption process but they have already crossed that 5 percent threshold whereby you should be seeing them going to a larger market share rather rapidly.
 
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jamanrr

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Some charge higher than that, I have seen a dollar KwH for electric level 2 charging before. You have limitations as with anything but I would not drive an EV across country but for local travel, to and from work, and most in state travel you are fine.
 

GCATX

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Also your math is a little fuzzy on the output requirements for level 2 charging, usually a 60 amp circuit is good enough to charge a Level 2 output over night. Anywhere from 40-50-60 will work but I would use a 60 amp breaker.

Maybe the gov will pay to upgrade older home service to allow another 60 amp draw. Or maybe there will be a lockout so that the dryer, oven or electric heat won't kick on while the car is charging.

Maybe the gov will pay for everyone to upgrade electric heat to heat pumps. If not, the people with natural gas heat, water heaters and appliances are really going to be screwed when their locality outlaws gas appliances and mandates electric cars. The typical 125amp 2500 sq/ft (gas) house service is gonna get wrung out.

It's a Pandora's box we are not ready for.

Edit: Not to mention the potlickers that live in apartments and hotels. Every parking spot would have to have a charging station.
 
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jeanco

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in France ,who is one of the nation who use nuclear power(64%) with 56 of them.
Half are in maintenance!
recently the one located near river have to slow down the reactor aka water of the river was too hot,
killing all the life in the river.
no safe way!
 
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