Projections: Used Automotive Market

[Faster48]

While i understand your point, prices rising due to supply is not the same as inflation. The home at 300K is the market price, and costs you far less to own over the mortgage life at 2-3% than a 250K house at 5-7%

 

[jamanrr]

While i understand your point, prices rising due to supply is not the same as inflation. The home at 300K is the market price, and costs you far less to own over the mortgage life at 2-3% than a 250K house at 5-7%

when has it been 5-7%? Just refinance the 250K after you have paid on it for a number of years at the lower percentage rate.

Just because rates are low doesn't make up the difference in price for the inflation that is occurring. The supply doesn't equal the demand so you have a shortage meaning prices are going to increase. In certain areas houses have been selling for more than asking price. Just the way it is.

Once it gets to that point, people will exit the market. Like a lot of folks on here not paying MSRP for a new vehicle that they received 10-12k off or even below invoice a few years ago.

 

[Faster48]

when has it been 5-7%? Just refinance the 250K after you have paid on it for a number of years at the lower percentage rate.

Just because rates are low doesn't make up the difference in price for the inflation that is occurring. The supply doesn't equal the demand so you have a shortage meaning prices are going to increase. In certain areas houses have been selling for more than asking price. Just the way it is.

Once it gets to that point, people will exit the market. Like a lot of folks on here not paying MSRP for a new vehicle that they received 10-12k off or even below invoice a few years ago.

It was 5.5 percent less than 10 years ago. It may get back there too. These sub 5 percent rates are well below anything we have seen previously.
Sure doesn't seem like folks are leaving the market so far, even with the over asking prices. Your feelings regarding prices don't necessarily mirror the markets.

 

[jamanrr]

It was 5.5 percent less than 10 years ago. It may get back there too. These sub 5 percent rates are well below anything we have seen previously.
Sure doesn't seem like folks are leaving the market so far, even with the over asking prices. Your feelings regarding prices don't necessarily mirror the markets.

No it doesn't since banks are approving it and people are paying it. They can do that but if you sell then you have to replace and I guess it could somewhat be a wash if you get 20-30 percent more than what you paid for 3-6 years ago. I just plan to keep my Gen 2 Raptor which I paid 56k for 2 years ago forever because I am not paying sticker for any vehicle. That will take people like me out of the market who have expectations of making a deal. it takes a lot of people out of the market as well.

and used prices on vehicles continue to climb as the environment is made to switch all auto makers to EVs.

 

[Faster48]

No it doesn't since banks are approving it and people are paying it. They can do that but if you sell then you have to replace and I guess it could somewhat be a wash if you get 20-30 percent more than what you paid for 3-6 years ago. I just plan to keep my Gen 2 Raptor which I paid 56k for 2 years ago forever because I am not paying sticker for any vehicle. That will take people like me out of the market who have expectations of making a deal. it takes a lot of people out of the market as well.

and used prices on vehicles continue to climb as the environment is made to switch all auto makers to EVs.

i dont disagree with you on vehicle prices, but to be fair, homes are different because they appreciate. I'm holding off on purchasing a new work van for my business due to the inflated prices. Its a want, not a need.

 

[WillieFlo]

They would have to be fast then, I check my Ford Pass app periodically. If I saw that then there would be a hunt for my truck via GPS and they better hope that they could pull it before I found them or the truck.

One solution would be to put an air tag somewhere on the vehicle hidden. Hunt them down, find your ride, and hope you don't have to OK Corral yourself in.

LOL

They would have to be fast then, I check my Ford Pass app periodically. If I saw that then there would be a hunt for my truck via GPS and they better hope that they could pull it before I found them or the truck.

One solution would be to put an air tag somewhere on the vehicle hidden. Hunt them down, find your ride, and hope you don't have to OK Corral yourself in.

LOL

Send an IM on here and we’ll do a posse hunt….I’m sure others on here like me would be ready & willing…..likely they’ve also been stocking up. We can play short game suppressed or long game with 6.5 Creedmoor and .338 Lapua….

 

[jeanco]

from Ford Authority

In 2021, Ford is projected to lose around 700,000 units of production as a direct result of the ongoing semiconductor chip shortage, which will cost the global automotive industry hundreds of billions of dollars. This crisis has also forced Ford to change the way it does business, prioritizing high-margin and strategically important vehicles over others, deleting features where possible, and shifting toward more of a build-to-order model rather than filling dealer lots with inventory. And while the chip shortage won’t last forever, CNBC speculates that the way Ford conducts business very well could.
“This is a better way to run our business,” Ford CEO Farley told investors earlier this year. “We have the most complicated go-to-market system I think on planet Earth. We could simplify all of that with tighter inventories.” Ford is currently targeting a 50-day supply, which is considerably less than the 75 days supply that the automaker has historically maintained, a move that it intends to make as it shifts toward a more profitable order-based system.


The longer inventory levels remains low, “the more likely it is that these changes can be made permanent,” said Tyson Jominy, vice president of data and analytics at J.D. Power. “The challenge is it’s a fixed asset industry and we have a core history of backsliding and producing more because the temptation is always there to cheat, produce one more unit because of the cost efficiencies.” There are around one million new vehicles current on dealer lots, a massive 1.8 million less than 2020, and 2.5 million fewer than 2019. This has, in turn, led to record high new vehicle prices and record low incentives.
“Everybody’s going to make a lot more money because of it from here on out,” said Sonic Automotive President Jeff ****. “I just don’t see it going back to pre-Covid levels.” A full 89 percent of new vehicles purchased this year have sold for near or above MSRP, compared to just 12 percent in 2019, and that doesn’t seem likely to change. “I would probably argue that some of that could be permanent,” said Jeff Schuster, LMC’s president of the Americas. “I don’t think pricing is going to come back down to pre-shortage levels or incentives are going to increase.”

 

[jamanrr]

from Ford Authority

In 2021, Ford is projected to lose around 700,000 units of production as a direct result of the ongoing semiconductor chip shortage, which will cost the global automotive industry hundreds of billions of dollars. This crisis has also forced Ford to change the way it does business, prioritizing high-margin and strategically important vehicles over others, deleting features where possible, and shifting toward more of a build-to-order model rather than filling dealer lots with inventory. And while the chip shortage won’t last forever, CNBC speculates that the way Ford conducts business very well could.
“This is a better way to run our business,” Ford CEO Farley told investors earlier this year. “We have the most complicated go-to-market system I think on planet Earth. We could simplify all of that with tighter inventories.” Ford is currently targeting a 50-day supply, which is considerably less than the 75 days supply that the automaker has historically maintained, a move that it intends to make as it shifts toward a more profitable order-based system.


The longer inventory levels remains low, “the more likely it is that these changes can be made permanent,” said Tyson Jominy, vice president of data and analytics at J.D. Power. “The challenge is it’s a fixed asset industry and we have a core history of backsliding and producing more because the temptation is always there to cheat, produce one more unit because of the cost efficiencies.” There are around one million new vehicles current on dealer lots, a massive 1.8 million less than 2020, and 2.5 million fewer than 2019. This has, in turn, led to record high new vehicle prices and record low incentives.
“Everybody’s going to make a lot more money because of it from here on out,” said Sonic Automotive President Jeff ****. “I just don’t see it going back to pre-Covid levels.” A full 89 percent of new vehicles purchased this year have sold for near or above MSRP, compared to just 12 percent in 2019, and that doesn’t seem likely to change. “I would probably argue that some of that could be permanent,” said Jeff Schuster, LMC’s president of the Americas. “I don’t think pricing is going to come back down to pre-shortage levels or incentives are going to increase.”

There will eventually be deals in place not like before though. Just this past week, a local dealer advertised $4500 off MSRP on all in stock F150s. While they did not have any Raps or Tremors, they still sold lots of their remaining 2021 stock. However, this deal ran through the first of the year and for one week only.

 

[smurfslayer]

This crisis has also forced Ford to change the way it does business, prioritizing high-margin and strategically important vehicles over others, deleting features where possible, and shifting toward more of a build-to-order model rather than filling dealer lots with inventory. And while the chip shortage won’t last forever, CNBC speculates that the way Ford conducts business very well could.

Emphasis mine. I’m more than a bit apprehensive about these rumblings. The more we hear about it, the more we’re being conditioned to accept it. This is leaked or staged bad news cloaked in a report and it’s “Delivering Bad News 101”. Rather than tell the car buying public “hey, we’re whacking inventory and going to a different model, where you’ll get to negotiate how much over MSRP you’ll pay” they break out individual components of the rationale and strategy, then announce once they have all the groundwork laid with the target audience. It’s how companies prepare workforces for layoffs, among other things.

So Ford needs the F150, period. Without it, they’re done. But they don’t need the GT500, GT350, Bullit, Mach 1, ST line or the Raptor... Well, maybe the Exploder ST, it’s a pretty good seller. They also don’t need the Bronco 4 door, but they began tooling up for it pre-covid and now they have to do something with all the tooling now don’t they. But, I’d be willing to bet there is a contingent within Ford that hopes it flops, so they can build a “McMiniSUV” instead. I hope it succeeds, but the roll out has been an unparalleled disaster. The Bronco roll out will be talked about for decades to come on how not to bring a product to market.

IMO, the Raptor is actually at risk in this model. It’s using its own dedicated parts - frame, the entire platform is unique from the F150 and super duty line, making it much more expensive. I will ask - wouldn’t it make more financial sense for Ford to “tart up” an existing platform like the Tremor than have a dedicated, separate one for the Raptor? I’m not asking if this would be better for us, it wouldn’t. I’m asking wouldn’t it be cheaper for Ford to design, QA and produce? If the answer is yes, then you can bet there are conversations within Ford about axing the Rap. They’re already hemorrhaging Raptor sales to the TRX.

Hopefully, the way stealerships do business won’t screw this up any worse and maybe things will get better, but it’s not looking that good.

 

[jabroni619]

There will eventually be deals in place not like before though. Just this past week, a local dealer advertised $4500 off MSRP on all in stock F150s. While they did not have any Raps or Tremors, they still sold lots of their remaining 2021 stock. However, this deal ran through the first of the year and for one week only.

It wouldn’t matter even if they had Raptors. Raptors are always excluded from those incentives