Projections: Used Automotive Market

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KAH 24

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dspangler

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Yep - the report is correct that the vehicle market in general will return back to normal. Some call that the "market tanking", and I do agree with that. The DJIA is going to nosedive, gas will skyrocket, inflation skyrocket, and interest rates skyrocket. In any cases, 2021, 2022, and 2023 will be terrible years to buy vehicles... whether it be bubble pricing (WAYYY overinflated price versus actual value), COVID parts (shortages have forced every manufacturer to use any part from any supplier), or COVID builds (untrained, gypsy workforce that doesn't care about build quality)....... also, not to mention the Ford service techs that are inexperienced to work on these complex service/warranty jobs. I would not touch a vehicle until 2025 at this rate... and it probably won't be a ford since they drank the biden juice and are caving to the liberal tree huggers. I would not doubt that Ford and Subaru join forces:)
 

WillieFlo

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I sure hope things will go back to normal soon. I'm so paranoid about my truck getting stolen and being taken across the border for the cartels or ending up in a chop shop.......We've recently had 4 Raptors reported stolen in the (HARO) Houston Area Raptor Owner's FB group. People are getting crazy out there, and it ain't worth THEM dying for.......
 

jamanrr

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I sure hope things will go back to normal soon. I'm so paranoid about my truck getting stolen and being taken across the border for the cartels or ending up in a chop shop.......We've recently had 4 Raptors reported stolen in the (HARO) Houston Area Raptor Owner's FB group. People are getting crazy out there, and it ain't worth THEM dying for.......


How are they stealing Gen 2s? From what I have seen the Cartels have a pension for the Gen 1 Raptors with actual keys. I am not sure I share @WillieFlo outlook on things. I think it is too big to fail and the prices for new vehicles and houses will continue to be high. I am not sure if the powers that be will allow another 2008 to happen. There is too much printable money to let that happen and too many people dependent on the government as well.
 

jabroni619

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How are they stealing Gen 2s? From what I have seen the Cartels have a pension for the Gen 1 Raptors with actual keys. I am not sure I share @WillieFlo outlook on things. I think it is too big to fail and the prices for new vehicles and houses will continue to be high. I am not sure if the powers that be will allow another 2008 to happen. There is too much printable money to let that happen and too many people dependent on the government as well.

It's not about letting 2008 happen. At least as far as the housing market is concerned, 2008 really can't happen. The ingredients just aren't there. Not only are stated income loans a thing of the past, meaning your housekeeper or babysitter cannot claim he/she makes 300k a year and get a loan, but everything is 15 or 30 year fixed nowadays. Predatory lenders were giving people who clearly do not make what they say they make a variable interest rate loan, with an interest only payment for 5 years. After 5 years, not only do you have to start paying off your principle, but your interest rate also shot way up, effectively tripling your mortgage payment in many cases. Combine that with home values dropping and you had the perfect storm.

Today, anyone who can afford their payment now, will still have the same payment 5-10-15 years from now. Real estate will still have it's ebbs and flows but there isn't going to be a glut of people who suddenly cannot afford their home and need to foreclose, so if you're waiting for THAT boat to circle back, your wait will be indefinite.
 

dspangler

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However, the crash WILL happen because everything was bought at MASSIVELY inflated prices. Houses, and cars in particular will turn people upside down. When this crash hits, the interest rates will be much higher than now, and people won't be able to afford. In the background, inflation will chew up ANY expendable income that households have. Welcome to Democrat / Socialist economics.
 

GCATX

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However, the crash WILL happen because everything was bought at MASSIVELY inflated prices. Houses, and cars in particular will turn people upside down. When this crash hits, the interest rates will be much higher than now, and people won't be able to afford. In the background, inflation will chew up ANY expendable income that households have. Welcome to Democrat / Socialist economics.

Crash and inflation? How is inflation going to turn people upside down who already have fixed monthly payments on houses and cars?

If anything, it will turn them right side up.

Anything is possible, but I wouldn't bet on trucks or otherwise going down in price for at least 3 years. The paper dollar you pull out of your wallet today is not worth near as much as the dollar in your wallet 2 years ago; microchips aside, that $ genie is not going back in the bottle any time soon.
 

dspangler

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Crash and inflation? How is inflation going to turn people upside down who already have fixed monthly payments on houses and cars?

If anything, it will turn them right side up.

Anything is possible, but I wouldn't bet on trucks or otherwise going down in price for at least 3 years. The paper dollar you pull out of your wallet today is not worth near as much as the dollar in your wallet 2 years ago; microchips aside, that $ genie is not going back in the bottle any time soon.
The $250k house that was just bought at $400k. That’s what is going to kill the market. The people paying msrp or even adm on vehicles will never recoup that. These are driving the imminent crash. Stupid people spending money in stupid ways.
 

GCATX

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The $250k house that was just bought at $400k. That’s what is going to kill the market. The people paying msrp or even adm on vehicles will never recoup that. These are driving the imminent crash. Stupid people spending money in stupid ways.

So, why do you say it's a 250k house? The market always dictates value. When hyperinflation hits, that 250/400 house will cost 1m-? to replace, in short order. Buyer is locked in at $1.5k/month payment, without regard to taxes and insurance. The people renting are really gonna take the hit because they missed the boat. Same with the non-raptor owners. :cool: Of course, we may all be driving gov't hourly rental electric cars in a few years.

The dollar is going into the *****-er eventually, it has to the way they are printing it.

If there is some type of crazy crash, we're all in the same boat. Then... :shooter:
 
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