It will likely be pricey, but I don’t think as bad as what you’ve outlined above.
1) Don’t pay ADM (at a minimum not on the Gen 3) it may be unavoidable on the R. But I still think possible to avoid if they make more than a few and you’re patient.
2) Depending on where you live, you’ll only be taxed on the difference between your trade and the purchase price. (Indiana does this).
3) I made money selling my 2 yr old Gen 2. I expect the Gen 3 to hold its value fairly well. With supply chain issues and chip shortages estimated to continue for the next year or longer, I doubt the market gets flooded (I don’t expect to make money again when I trade in, but I doubt I lose much either).
The big ? Is who will be given the chance to buy one and will the msrp be south of $100k?
What I meant was why would I go buy a gen 3 at MSRP (most likely + ADM), then take a loss getting into the R? The math doesn't seem all that good on that choice.
I do bet that the R will be priced exactly like the TRX (or even below it). Ford will completely lose the market if they don't become reasonable with this.