I think that's probably right, but for a sad reason. I'll add my opinion to the topic with no real knowledge. That's what the Internet is for, right?
I think the problem is the fact that the Gen 1 6.2 L gets 11 MPG in city driving. Ford didn't manufacture enough of the Gen 1s to interfere much with its CAFE requirement, but the unexpected popularity of the truck and our willingness to pay so much for it pushed Ford in to the Gen 2 engine which had to be more fuel efficient so that Ford could make a lot more of them and maintain the required CAFE (see "Corporate Average Fuel Economy" on Wikipedia if not familiar with CAFE). (This trend was already underway independent of the Raptor given Ford's heavy reliance on pickup sales in general.) Ford is certainly making more money from Gen 2s than Gen 1s simply based on a volume that I doubt Ford could ever get away with on the Gen 1 platform because of CAFE.
But a $25,000 "option" would indeed limit the uptake on the low MPG V8 option and protect Ford's CAFE while generating the "halo" effect and making some high margin sales on a much lower volume. This would never make more money than the current Gen 2 configuration, but it would make additional money for Ford and that means it should be possible. I confess I don't really want to buy a Gen 2 even though it is technically superior under the hood. But there's nothing else I want to buy either... (Maybe in a few years Elon will figure out the pickup truck market; I could be tempted to give up my V8 for full torque at 0 MPH...)
The "supply and demand" of capitalism isn't in play on this topic and therefore logic will lead to a lot of wrong predictions. "Climate change" will continue to drive legislation that slowly compels the masses to fall in line. A huge amount of the technology in cars is designed to improve fuel economy. While I like the idea proposed by some that my Gen 1 will be worth stealing someday
I think it is much more likely that the climate change folks will propose mandatory government buybacks for gas guzzlers like my beloved Raptor. Recall the voluntary program that did this during the Obama administration and recall the recent politician who campaigned on mandatory gun buybacks. "That government is best which governs least" and when that is not the bent a slow loss of liberty results.
I think the V8 is largely dead because it can't exist in a world that, by consensus and perhaps even science, will "end" as we know it in our children's' lifetimes. I neither deny climate change nor endorse the hysteria around it, but I think the "Raptor is getting a V8" speculation will continue for a long time because it is a logical outcome of consumer desire. But I also think that those who say it will never happen are essentially right, but not because Ford doesn't want to do it. Ford
can't do it. That makes me sad.
Anyway, just my thoughts on the topic.
