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GEN 2 (2017-2020) Ford F-150 Raptor Forums
Ford F-150 Raptor General Discussions [GEN 2]
Poll: Does/did your 2017 Raptor leak oil.
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<blockquote data-quote="jaz13" data-source="post: 1175714" data-attributes="member: 24095"><p>"a little knowledge is a dangerous thing". </p><p></p><p>Sample size and confidence interval has nothing to do with population size. Thousand, million, or billion, it doesn't matter. If you look it up, you will notice population size is not a variable in the confidence interval formula. This is why pollsters can determine how millions of us will vote from a couple thousand respondents and Neilson influences billions of dollars of advertising with just a few thousand households.</p><p></p><p>This makes sense intuitively if you think about sampling M&Ms to determine the ratio of colors. Bag, bathtub, swiming pool, lake, or ocean of M&Ms, it doesn't change how many you need to count to have a good idea of the proportions. Only varience affects sample size, ie how well mixed up is the pile of M&Ms. Well mixed up, small sample size; colors all bunched together, large sample size. </p><p></p><p>Another example is your doctor only needs one blood sample because the variance in your blood is very low. The results from one blood sample will be identical to five samples or fifty samples. Lucky for you your doctor doesn't need to take 2,000 blood samples to determine your cholesterol.</p><p></p><p>Finally, this survey is conducting "explatory research" and is most definitely not a scientific or representative. But it is ignorant to discount its usefulness. This website is a hub for Raptor enthusiasts and is probably fairly representative. I have no reason to believe enthusiasts are more likely to experience a leak than a non-enthusiast. It's not as if I am sitting in the waiting room of a Ford service department asking if people are having problems with their vehicle.</p><p></p><p>For QC purposes, you want a failure rate in the small fractions of a percent. Six Sigma is something around 0.0001% failure rate. Given this exploratory survey, it is clear that Ford has a problem and the oil pan failure rate is in multiple percentage points. I'd most likely between 5 and 20%. That is a devastatingly horrible failure rate for manufacturing.</p><p></p><p>Of course the numbers will only grow because there are many who have not experienced the leak yet that will have one, or those that have a leak but haven't noticed it yet. </p><p></p><p>Be careful the next time you go spouting off about things you don't really understand.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="jaz13, post: 1175714, member: 24095"] "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing". Sample size and confidence interval has nothing to do with population size. Thousand, million, or billion, it doesn't matter. If you look it up, you will notice population size is not a variable in the confidence interval formula. This is why pollsters can determine how millions of us will vote from a couple thousand respondents and Neilson influences billions of dollars of advertising with just a few thousand households. This makes sense intuitively if you think about sampling M&Ms to determine the ratio of colors. Bag, bathtub, swiming pool, lake, or ocean of M&Ms, it doesn't change how many you need to count to have a good idea of the proportions. Only varience affects sample size, ie how well mixed up is the pile of M&Ms. Well mixed up, small sample size; colors all bunched together, large sample size. Another example is your doctor only needs one blood sample because the variance in your blood is very low. The results from one blood sample will be identical to five samples or fifty samples. Lucky for you your doctor doesn't need to take 2,000 blood samples to determine your cholesterol. Finally, this survey is conducting "explatory research" and is most definitely not a scientific or representative. But it is ignorant to discount its usefulness. This website is a hub for Raptor enthusiasts and is probably fairly representative. I have no reason to believe enthusiasts are more likely to experience a leak than a non-enthusiast. It's not as if I am sitting in the waiting room of a Ford service department asking if people are having problems with their vehicle. For QC purposes, you want a failure rate in the small fractions of a percent. Six Sigma is something around 0.0001% failure rate. Given this exploratory survey, it is clear that Ford has a problem and the oil pan failure rate is in multiple percentage points. I'd most likely between 5 and 20%. That is a devastatingly horrible failure rate for manufacturing. Of course the numbers will only grow because there are many who have not experienced the leak yet that will have one, or those that have a leak but haven't noticed it yet. Be careful the next time you go spouting off about things you don't really understand. [/QUOTE]
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GEN 2 (2017-2020) Ford F-150 Raptor Forums
Ford F-150 Raptor General Discussions [GEN 2]
Poll: Does/did your 2017 Raptor leak oil.
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